The Etihad Stadium (above), home of Manchester City, plays host to the first Boxing Day match of the EPL’s 2024 Christmas schedule. [Image: Shutterstock.com]

The most wonderful (soccer) time of the year

It’s one of those matchdays that soccer fans in England most look out for when the fixtures are released in June – Boxing Day. The NFL equivalent of Thanksgiving Day or the NBA’s Christmas Day.

burn off the over-indulgences

It is a day that for English soccer fans is as much part of the Holiday Season as Christmas Day itself. A day to burn off the over-indulgences and calories of the 25th and return to some form of normality.

In seasons gone by there would have been a full program of English Premier League (EPL) and English Football League (EFL) soccer on the day itself but the demands of live TV usually lead to the schedule being spread over two days.

This year is no different. Eight games on Boxing Day. Two on the 27th. It’s also a big day for the soccer bettors.  

So, let’s take a look at each match and see if we can identify some value and best bets.

Manchester City vs Everton (Boxing Day – 07:30 am ET)

For City, this is not a normal Festive period. Usually, they are on top of the tree and looking down on the rest of the EPL. Their Boxing Day fixture is usually seen as an opportunity to consolidate their place at the top of the league. But not this time.

A poor run of form through November and into early January has seen City slip well off the pace in both the EPL title race and UEFA Champions League qualifying. It has been an unprecedented downturn in form – the worst of Pep Guardiola’s managerial career – and another defeat on Boxing Day would likely be one too many for many City fans.

The mood shift has been extreme in the blue half of Manchester in recent weeks, and even with a fit-again Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland, the wins have been hard to come by.   

Everton too have struggled for wins and they continue to hover around the relegation places – hardly ideal in the season before moving to their brand new stadium at the start of season 2025-26. Relegation, in those circumstances, would be unthinkable but Sean Dyche’s men have not performed well on the road and look unlikely to be able to hurt even a struggling City side.   

City’s quality and need for victory should see them comfortably home.

PICK: City to win 2-0 (+200)

AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (Boxing Day – 10:00 am ET)

The Cherries have been one of the season’s EPL success stories so far and currently hover just below the European places. Andoni Iraola’s men have punched well above their weight and have won half of their games so far.

If Bournemouth continue this form into the second half of the season, then a place in next season’s UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League remains a distinct possibility.

Palace, meanwhile, have been among the division’s under-performers. Oliver Glasner’s men have been unable to build on a strong 2023-24 – when they finished tenth – and have spent the entire campaign either in the relegation zone or just one or two places above it.      

the good days for Palace have, so far, been outnumbered by the bad

Big names in the squad, such as the England pairing of Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze, have been unavailable due to injury and the good days for Palace have, so far, been outnumbered by the bad.

But the good news for Palace is that Eze is fit again and starting to find form, while Wharton has undergone groin surgery and is expected to be fit for the Christmas program.

Therefore, Palace may fancy their chances of taking something home from the Vitality Stadium and at +300 for the away win, the value is with them.

PICK: Palace to win (+300)

Chelsea vs Fulham (Boxing Day – 10:00 am ET) 

Local derbies on Boxing Day used to be a staple of the English Christmas program, although due to police concerns they are less prevalent these days. But we have one here as Fulham make their shortest journey of the season – down the King’s Road to face neighbors Chelsea.

The Blues start this one as odds-on favorites – no surprise given how well Enzo Maresca’s talented squad have adapted to his new ideas over the first four months of the campaign. With Man City faltering and Arsenal also dropping points, Chelsea are now the team chasing down leaders Liverpool.   

But Fulham too are having a good season and appears free of any relegation concerns. Marco Silva’s men are currently in the top half of the table and are above some big names, including Newcastle and Manchester United.

So, while the Cottagers head to Stamford Bridge as underdogs, they also head there with the belief that they can get something from the game.

On paper, this looks likely to be one of the games of the day, and I’m expecting goals. Over 3.5 goals at +500 looks like great value.

PICK: Over 3.5 goals (+500)

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (Boxing Day – 10:00 am ET)   

The Toon have not had the season they or the tipsters expected. The Saudi billions that headed in the direction of Tyneside a couple of seasons ago have not yet transformed the St James’ Park trophy room into one laden with silverware. Not even close.

Currently, Newcastle are the epitome of a mid-table EPL team – one that looks free of any relegation concerns but, equally, is off the pace in terms of the race for European places.

In their day, Newcastle are a match for anyone at home, but that vociferous home crowd can also be demanding and add pressure.

Away form has been a problem

Villa have, unsurprisingly, been unable to replicate their excellence of last season with having UEFA Champions League commitments to juggle alongside their domestic fixtures. But still, they are in the hunt for the European places. Away form has been a problem for them though  – just three wins on the road – so a Toon win here is the value bet.     

PICK: Newcastle to win (-110)  

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur (Boxing Day – 10:00 am ET)           

Few pundits expected Forest to be challenging the top four this season, but that’s precisely what’s happened. Before the commencement of the Christmas program, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are fourth in the table and are keeping the pressure firmly on Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea.  

While few are expecting them to challenge for the title, a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League is a realistic possibility if they can maintain their momentum, starting with this tricky-looking encounter against Spurs.

Tottenham have had what’s become known as a ‘Spursy’ season – terrific wins followed by disappointing defeats – and have, as ever, been consistently inconsistent. Manager Ange Postecoglou has struggled to make Spurs into potential champions and they head to the City Ground as underdogs.

But (and there is a but) Spurs’ unpredictably makes them dangerous opponents on any given day, and they are more than capable of winning at the City Ground. For me, with some of Forest’s big results coming away from home, this could be one of Spurs’ good days.

PICK: Tottenham win (+155)

Southampton vs West Ham United (Boxing Day – 10:00 am ET)

It has been a nightmare of a season for The Saints. Former manager, Russell Martin’s refusal to deviate even slightly from his ‘total football’ ethos ultimately cost him his job as Southampton’s head coach. Against better teams with better technicians, their desire to play the ball patiently and accurately through the thirds floundered badly. They remain rooted to the foot of the EPL.

Lopetegui looks safe from the sack, at least for the time being

West Ham, after a difficult spell, have hauled themselves clear of the relegation zone and have started to steer themselves toward mid-table. Manager Julen Lopetegui looks safe from the sack, at least for the time being, and this Boxing Day trip to the South Coast looks to be a perfect opportunity to push on.

At the time of writing, Sheffield Wednesday’s Danny Rohl is favorite to take over from Martin in the Saints’ hot seat, but may not be in situ in time for this game. Either way, St Mary’s Stadium will be bouncing and a more pragmatic style of play may help the Saints yield more points. A point apiece looks like a possibility here.

PICK: The draw (+290)    

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester United (Boxing Day – 12:30 pm ET)

The sacking of Gary O’Neil from the Wolverhampton hot seat was inevitable from the moment Ipswich scored a late winner in their bottom-of-the-table clash. The season has been something of a nightmare for the Black Country side, with O’Neil being hamstrung from the word go by a lack of funds in the summer transfer window.

As a result, Wolves have generally fielded a young, inexperienced team this season and have suffered as a result. New manager Vitor Pereira may or may not be supported with funds in the January transfer window, but will bring some much-needed experience to the technical area.

For United, who are in the early phase of Ruben Amorim’s managerial reign, have shown signs of improvement and gave their fans a massive fillip by winning the Manchester Derby. But there is still much work to be done before they challenge for the EPL title, and there will be many ups and downs along the way.

As such, there is an opportunity here for Wolves. With a new manager and, perhaps, a renewed sense of hope, I’m expecting a fiery Molineux to make it a difficult afternoon for United. Understandably, the Red Devils start as favorites but there’s usually a shock result on Boxing Day and this may just be it. At +375 for the home win, the value bet is right there.

PICK: Wolves to win (+375)    

Liverpool vs Leicester City (Boxing Day – 15:00 pm ET)

The Reds show no sign of letting up in their pursuit of the EPL title. They head into the Christmas program with daylight between them and the chasing pack and have acquired that priceless ability of being able to win games without playing well.

full of confidence and, crucially, aided by an expectant and buoyant Anfield

The Liverpool players have fitted perfectly into Arne Slot’s eye-catching style – a contrast to the ‘heavy metal’ soccer of Jurgen Klopp – and are full of confidence and, crucially, aided by an expectant and buoyant Anfield. It is a formidable combination.

Leicester, who have also changed managers in the past month, have so far been the pick of the promoted teams. They currently sit just above the relegation zone but the gap is small and they could easily be sucked into the bottom three.

While new Foxes manager, Ruud van Nistelrooy, has picked up some good results at the King Power – Leicester’s home – their away form has been their Achilles heel this season. It is hard to see that changing at Anfield, and so the value is in trying to forecast the size of the home win.

PICK: Liverpool to win 3-0 (+800)

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford (December 27 – 14:30 pm ET)

Two of the EPL teams who continue to punch above their weight meet at the Amex Stadium the day after Boxing Day. Both are currently mid-table but also only a couple of wins away from challenging for the European places. This makes it a vital encounter.

As hosts, Brighton will start the game as odds-on favorites, partly down to the fact the Bees have an atrocious away record. In fact, they have the worst away record in the EPL but the best home one – better even than Liverpool!

Only if Thomas Frank’s men can find a way of busting their away-day hoodoo will they trouble the Seagulls, but surely that first away win of the season has to come sometime. This could be the day.

Brighton’s home form is not perfect by any means – they have picked up almost as many wins away from home as they have at home – and so if Brentford get a foothold in the game and avoid conceding early on, they have the players capable of getting that win. At +320, they look great value for the speculators out there.

PICK: Brentford to win (+320)              

Arsenal vs Ipswich Town (December 27 – 15:15 pm ET)

The Gunners’ title challenge has faltered of late amid some dropped points from games they will feel they should have won. Their recent 0-0 home draw with Everton on a day when Liverpool dropped two points was a perfect example, but as a result, they have ground to make up on Liverpool.

What Mikel Arteta’s men cannot afford to do is drop more points against lowly opponents … like relegation-threatened Ipswich Town. The Gunners have though recently been boosted by the return to fitness of Martin Ødegaard and Gabriel and will be confident of getting their title challenge back on track.

valuable win at Wolves is their relegation six-pointer

Ipswich, meanwhile, who have generally been poor despite spending $125m in the summer, did pick up that valuable win at Wolves is their relegation six-pointer. This will have given the Blues a timely lift and they will head to the Emirates with a nothing-to-lose attitude. This could make them dangerous opponents if the Gunners are not at their best.

But, while it feels like Ipswich has enough firepower to get on the scoresheet, Arsenal’s extra quality and EPL experience should be enough to see them through to a comfortable win.

PICK: Arsenal to win 3-1 (+1100)